During any presidential election year in the US, one wonders how candidates will handle their policies, whether related to security, the economy or foreign affairs. Additionally, consideration is given to how different target groups perceive or judge these candidates. Recently, there has been a surprising shift, with various prominent businessmen in the US expressing positive views of Donald Trump’s presidency. As we are still in the early stages of the primaries, one might question if this is a vote of confidence, an encouragement for Trump or a message for President Joe Biden.

During the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos last week, Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the biggest bank in the US, gave a view of the Trump administration that no one was expecting to hear from him. During a CNBC interview, he stated: “Take a step back, be honest. He was kind of right about NATO, kind of right on immigration. He grew the economy quite well. Trade tax reform worked. He was right about some of China. He wasn’t wrong about some of these critical issues.” It is also interesting to note that, a few months back, there were rumors and calls from other leading business executives for Dimon to stand in the elections.

Meanwhile, billionaire former Facebook executive Chamath Palihapitiya, who views himself as a Democrat and had initially criticized Trump, praised some of the former president’s policies on a podcast at the end of 2023. Palihapitiya admitted to initially grading Trump an “F” and fearing the “end of the world” when he was elected in 2016. However, as time passed and emotions subsided, he revised his assessment, eventually recognizing Trump as a “B, B-plus,” saying that he did a pretty good job as president. This shift in perspective highlights Palihapitiya’s evolving appreciation for certain aspects of the Trump administration.

The underlying message is that it is time for a less divided political landscape, especially when facing severe global challenges. The US political establishment should focus on results, rather than each administration destroying or moving away from its predecessor’s policies. In short, the business community is seeking stability and continuity on important topics. There is also a real worry among the business community over the drifting of the Democratic Party toward what one might call a European-style leftist position, or deploying a socialist vision for the US.

Judging by the reactions and attacks on Dimon following his statement, it is evident that this time has not yet come and the political divide will persist. It is also apparent that Trump is now being used as an excuse to avoid meaningful conversations. What is being conveyed is that political leaders should not denigrate the people who vote for Trump; on the contrary, they should listen to their grievances and understand their wishes. Dismissing their concerns, as well as any positive remarks about Trump’s actions, is misguided.

This is probably why renowned billionaire investor Ray Dalio expressed pessimism about the 2024 presidential election potentially being a rematch between Biden and Trump, citing concerns about the acceptance of its outcome and clashes between the far left and far right. Also speaking at Davos, Dalio highlighted his worries over Biden’s vigor and the emergence of a “more progressive” Democratic Party against a “conservative, nationalistic” Republican Party. He clearly stated that both candidates are a threat to the stock market. And if we consider the stock market as a forward-looking indicator, this means that he considers both politicians to be a threat to the future of the US. 

This highlights the general concern about the divisive state of American politics and the potential for a contentious 2024 election, similar to the tumultuous 2020 race. It is evident that, starting with the business community, more voices are calling for a stronger middle ground, with some even advocating a return to a more centrist approach to bridge ideological divides. The drift toward irreconcilable differences and the dangerous impact of ideological infighting are very clear for the future of the US both domestically and internationally. Key elements of governance, economics and taxes have also been politicized. The entire business community is now emphasizing the importance of reforms, regardless of the election outcome, in order to avoid any uncertainty on the future trajectory of US politics. 

This is probably why Blackstone Group CEO Steve Schwarzman, a billionaire who was a Trump supporter in 2020 before coming out against the former president two years ago, has said he is still deciding whether he will publicly back the former president or one of his rivals this year. He said he was watching for any election “surprises” as he weighs his support. “I’m in the let’s wait and see how this works. I’m not into the hypothetical world yet as much as you’d like me to be,” he said last week. 

As the primaries have now kicked off, the tone indicates more aggressiveness. In New Hampshire on Tuesday, Trump continued his winning streak in the Republican race against Nikki Haley, adding to his previous victory in Iowa. However, unlike the previous overwhelming outcome, Trump did not achieve a knockout blow. The allocation of New Hampshire’s 22 delegates saw Trump receiving 12 and Haley securing nine. 

On the other side, despite not actively campaigning in New Hampshire, Joe Biden secured victory in the state’s Democratic presidential primary through a write-in campaign organized by his allies and surrogates. It is worth noting that hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman committed $1 million to support Rep. Dean Phillips’ challenge for the Democratic nomination, clearly looking for a change in the future of the party.

All this suggests that the business community no longer aligns with the current Democratic Party leadership. Although such businessmen hesitate to openly endorse Trump, there is growing skepticism toward Biden, who appears to have allowed the left-leaning middle management of his administration to exert significant influence. There is no doubt that leading executives are now starting to believe that the Democratic Party has been taken over by the progressives, pushing the entire political spectrum to the extremes. Their bullying tactics of cancel culture and forcing agendas that go against American family values have created the need for voters to look to Trump.

This is why the next election goes beyond choosing the next president — it is about the risk to the core principles and values that have made the US the great nation that it is. And business leaders find themselves uneasy with both likely solutions, as they grapple with the risk posed to the country’s fundamental principles and values.